I don’t usually write about politics, but thought I’d share
some thoughts on the upcoming Israeli elections. Hope this is helpful in making
sense of what’s going on and looking forward to learning from other voices that
see things differently than I…
Mish
An Amateurs’ Guide to the 2015 Israeli Elections | Mishael
Zion
Israel is going to the polls on March 17th, for
the third time in six years. The campaign began with most Israelis fatigued and
cynical, but schisms and unions among Israel’s political parties have energized
these elections and offer a poignant glimpse into the changes that Israeli
society is experiencing. Much attention is given to Netanyahu’s prospects of becoming prime-minister of Israel for the fourth time, and the enormous energy spent to replace him (check out the
videos on this FB page). But the real drama unfolding in Israel’s streets,
cafes and living rooms is the dilemma of the undecided. Recent polls have shown
that upwards
of 20% of the population say they have not yet decided how to cast their vote.
Likud and Labor are currently polling neck-and-neck, so it is the number of
seats which the small parties will receive that will determine whether Labor’s
Isaac Herzog can create a coalition of 60+ Knesset seats, or if Netanyahu will
receive the reigns yet again.
Since I know many Americans have a hard time keeping track
of Israel’s gazillion-party-system (which is almost as broken as the two-party-system),
and in an attempt to justify the many hours I’ve spent reading analysis and
watching videos on my facebook feed, I offer four fictional, stereotypical and totally
biased narratives highlighting some of the questions Israeli voters are asking
themselves. You’ll notice that Iran and the Palestinians, US-Israel relations
and ISIS are not the focus here – that already is saying something. At the end
of each narrative I’ve provided some of the recent poll numbers. Videos from each party’s campaign with English subtitles can be found here (and here's John Oliver's hilarious recap). Hope this is helpful as the elections unfold in the coming
week and look forward to questions and alternate readings…
The Centre-Right: Will the real Begin please stand up?
 |
| Aryeh Deri and Moshe Kahlon |
I’m your Jerusalem cab driver, Mickey. What’s that? Yes, I
was born in Algeria, and I’ll never forget how my father’s honor was denigrated
by those anti-religious euro-centric Ben Gurion-ists. The first politician who
got my loyalty was Menachem Begin, who spoke to us at eye level, and it’s been
Likud straight through ever since. But recently Netanyahu has lost me. All this
talk of
Iran – well, sure, its important, and he’s the ONLY ONE who is strong
against a hostile world – but we’re struggling down here. Bibi talks about a
“Start Up Nation” – but we haven’t seen a cent of that. This time I’m thinking
of voting for Moshe Kahlon. He’s all that’s left from the Real Likud, the Begin
way. He’s a good guy, and his cell phone reform saves us 200 shekel a month.
Let him be Minister of the Treasury and lets see if he can do that to 3-4 other
industries, that’ll be worth my vote. My wife says we should vote for Shas.
Aryeh Deri is back now, and he’s been banging the drums of anti-Mizrachi
discrimination – saying he’s the only one who ever did anything for the “transparent”
ones in society, emphasizing the “Mahlouf” in his name. Funny, that was my name
growing up too, but everyone calls me Mickey. But now they say Kahlon and Shas
might join a Labor coalition, maybe it’ll be Bibi after all…
The Liberal Left:
Zionist after all or united with the Arab List?
I guess I’m your classic
secular Tel Aviv stereotype, a literary editor at a publishing house, still
stinkin’
smolani”, with a long, hissing S, my whole life, but the verbal violence
turned physical in the streets of Tel Aviv this summer. It sometimes feels like
all my friends have moved to Berlin or Berkeley, and lecture me on how Zionism
is passé. Still, the social protests of 2011 brought back some of my faith in
this society, and the Meretz Knesset members make me proud with their struggles
for women’s rights, LGBT rights, a welfare state. I’ve voted Meretz ever since
Rabin was assassinated – still remember crying for him in the square for days –
but last elections I voted Hadash, the veteran Arab-Jewish communist
party. It was a statement of the inability of the State of Israel to be both
Jewish and Democratic – and I know what side of the equation I’m on. But now the Arab parties have all united, and a vote for the exciting new Hadash leaders is
also a vote for the ultra-nationalist Palestinian parties and the religious
Muslim Movement. If Labor wins, my Meretz vote might find itself supporting a
watered-down coalition with haters from the right. But can I vote for
transcending the Jewish-Arab divide when half the candidates draw that line
from the Arab side?
working on my first novel, and proudly in Israel’s far left wing. I’ve watched
this country take a swerve to the right, becoming more “Jewish” then I ever
remember it, increasingly dominated by an ethno-centric discourse which casually
hates Arabs and recently began to proudly hate Leftists. I’ve been called “
Meretz | Zehava Galon | 4-6 seats | Meretz against voting Labor
United Arab List | Aiman Ouda | 12-15
seats | United Arab List Theme Song
The Religious Right: Jewish
Home or All-Together-Now
 |
| HaBayit haYehudi: Female leadership |
Adi and Yishai Schwartz live in Ranana, met in Bnei Akiva,
have 4 kids, and like everyone else they know - are voting for Naftali Bennet’s
modern-orthodox “Jewish Home”. Bennet announced that he is no longer apologizing: not apologizing
to the world for the so-called Occupation, not apologizing to the Palestinians
for their so-called suffering (it’s isn’t suffering when its self-inflicted).
But truly he stopped apologizing to the secular Israelis for the fact that
religious Jews were late comers to the Zionist endeavor. It is time religious
Jews teach something about Zionism to secular Israelis. Even Yishai’s secular
partner at the law firm is voting Jewish Home this time. But the Schwartz’s are
distraught – their youngest son Nerya came back from Yeshiva and announced that
he is voting for the new schismatic party “Yachad”, formed by renegade
Ultra-Orthodox “Shas” Mizrachim, far-right religious Zionists and Kahanists.
Nerya criticizes Bennet (and by proxy, his parents) of not truly
 |
| Ultra Orthodox, Mizrachim and Dati'im: Yachad |
The Centre Left: The
Ashkenazim who lost the Country
 |
| Yair Lapid and Isaac Buzi Herzog |
Eli and Sarit Katz are sick and tired of a political
discourse that overlooks their daily needs. Iran shmiran, they have been
married 15 years and are still renting in Herzliya, having watched apartment
prices soar over the past 8 years. They work hard - he’s in sales, she’s an
accounts manager. They own 1.5 cars, have 2.5 children and 0.5 pets. Did I
mention that they are Ashkenazi? In the 90’s they voted for Yitzhak Rabin and
Ehud Barak, and wanted to believe in peace with the Palestinians, but the
second Intifada and the wars with the Hamas in Gaza have made them cynical of
talk of “peace”. They believe in a “normal Israel”, one located in Western
Europe, not the Middle East, and would happily get rid of the West Bank – its
Jewish or Palestinian residents – as long as someone can promise them that
flights from Ben Gurion airport will continue unabated. They want to feel there
is a future for them and their kids here, one where they can afford to buy a
house and make a normal living - so last elections voted for Yair Lapid - whose
good looks first charmed them as Israel’s prime-time talk show host. Yair
talked about middle class and promised to force Ultra-orthodox Jews to serve in
the army and join the workforce. He made good on the promise (sort of), but
achieved little else. Now this Herzog kid is gaining steam, and suddenly seems
like he can actually push Netanyahu off his seat. Sure, he’s unimpressive at
first, but he’s growing on them. It’d be nice to vote for Labor again, and the
cadre of politicians in Labor’s list is more impressive than Lapid’s minions.
Huh, we’ll have to wait for the last day to really make a call…
Labor / Zionist Camp | Isaac (“Buzi”) Herzog and Tzipi Livni
| 20-25 seats | Last minute to save the country
This is far
from the whole picture (see below), but I hope it’s somewhat helpful.
What’s next? The
prime ministership is assigned to the party which can assemble a majority
coalition of 61 seats (out of the Knesset’s 120). It is generally assumed the
Kahlon, Lapid and Shas will join any coalition, but more parties would prefer a
Netanyahu led government. Thus while Labor might receive the largest amount of
seats, it might not be able to cobble together the majority needed to make
Herzog prime minister. Netanyahu’s Likud has more options, but if it dips below
20 seats, will have a hard time justifying it. Everyone knows there will be a
few big surprises when the final results come in Tuesday night. What they will
be, and how they will shape Israel’s future – are anyone’s guess.
p.s. Missing from the
picture are the Asheknazi Ultra Orthodox (UTJ) party polling at 6-8 seats, and
Avigdor Liberman’s party, hit hard by corruption charges but keeping its base
of Russian voters at 4-6 seats. Lieberman, Meretz and Yachad are all teetering
on the 4-seat-minimum for entrance into the Knesset at all. If any of those
don’t pass muster, the coalition picture will change significantly. Finally,
was below the 4-seat-minimum, but most fascinating of all, is a party of Ultra
Orthodox women who refuse to vote for the Ultra Orthodox parties because they
do not give representation to women. A harbinger of the way feminism is
changing Israeli society on a daily basies.
No comments:
Post a Comment